What if public transport were as convenient as a private car, but cost only a fraction of the price? A new study commissioned by DB Regio provides a data-driven answer. For this project, the experts at ioki Mobility Analytics and Consulting simulated detailed scenarios for the nationwide deployment of autonomous shuttles and buses across Germany for the year 2045. The result: integrated, autonomous public transport is not only more convenient for passengers but also the most economically viable solution for the public sector.
Key findings from the study:
- Improved Accessibility: Autonomous fleets massively reduce waiting times – to an average of 5 minutes in metropolitan areas and 13 minutes in rural regions. For the first time, this makes public transport a nationwide, time-competitive alternative to the private car.
- Increase in Modal Split: When public transport operates as flexibly as a private car, citizens choose the more efficient alternative. The simulation shows that an integrated, autonomous system can increase the public transport modal split to over 35%.
- Economic Viability for Municipalities: Contrary to the assumption that more service equals higher costs, the required public sector subsidies decrease by 20% in the simulated scenario. This is achieved through the use of smart technologies to reduce costs and a revenue model that relies more heavily on direct user financing.
- Enhanced Quality of Life through Modal Shift: In cities, the improved service leads to a reduction in traffic congestion of up to 11%, as the high availability of local transport makes switching from a private car highly attractive.
Vision of integrated, autonomous public transport: What municipalities can do today
The study demonstrates the power of data-driven transport planning. Autonomous driving only unfolds its maximum social benefit through deep integration into the existing public transport network. For transport companies and municipalities, this means that those who invest in autonomous transport and integrated systems now are creating the necessary conditions for more people to switch to public transport in the long term.
The full study, “Autonomous Driving – Key to Tomorrow’s Mobility”, can be found on deutschebahn.com.
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About the study “Autonomous Driving – Key to Tomorrow’s Mobility”
The study was commissioned by DB Regio in collaboration with the software and transport planning company ioki, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and Prognos AG. An advisory board of experts accompanied the study.
About ioki Mobility Analytics and Consulting
The interdisciplinary Mobility Analytics & Consulting team combines public transport industry expertise, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and state-of-the-art technologies for the multimodal optimisation of transport services. In doing so, it supports transport companies worldwide in rethinking mobility. With data-based simulations and a deep understanding of operational processes, we make the public transport of tomorrow plannable today.
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